{
 "slug": "x402-counterparty-survival",
 "url": "https://stillosdigitalholdings.com/findings/x402-counterparty-survival",
 "question": "If an agent starts paying an x402 service today, how likely is that service to be delisted within a month?",
 "headline": "By 30 days, 74.56% of paid x402 services an agent could have started paying are no longer listed.",
 "cite_as": "74.56% 30-day delisting incidence for x402 services that already had a paying counterparty (Still OS Digital Holdings LLC, x402 counterparty-survival baseline, Kaplan-Meier over n=122,466 subjects, 2026-09-27 to 2026-11-07, 27 dated snapshots).",
 "numbers": {
  "Delisting incidence at 7 days": "6.44%",
  "Delisting incidence at 14 days": "50.42%",
  "Delisting incidence at 30 days": "74.56%",
  "Cohort": "services that already had at least one paying counterparty",
  "Subjects in the risk set": "122,466",
  "Delistings observed": "91,677",
  "Robustness (30-day, leave-one-out)": "56.55% to 74.62% over 25 folds",
  "Observation window": "2026-09-27 to 2026-11-07 (27 snapshots, 41 calendar days)",
  "Subjects observed across the catalog": "140,257"
 },
 "method": "Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence over a dated daily census of the x402 resource catalog, censored at the observation horizon. A service is treated as delisted at the first snapshot after its last sighting, keyed on last sighting rather than first absence because a small share of first-absences return later. Durations are real calendar days, not snapshot index, so the known gaps in the series do not distort the curve. Robustness is leave-one-out by snapshot. The series cannot be backfilled by anyone, including us.",
 "producers": [
  "/home/marcus/state/x402-catalog/counterparty-survival.json"
 ],
 "defines_term": {
  "name": "Counterparty Survival at 30 days",
  "abbr": "CS30",
  "definition": "The probability that a paid x402 service an agent could have started paying is still listed 30 days later, as a Kaplan-Meier survival estimate over a dated daily census. Its complement is the 30-day delisting incidence a dependent agent budgets failover against."
 },
 "cite": {
  "canonical": "74.56% 30-day delisting incidence for x402 services that already had a paying counterparty (Still OS Digital Holdings LLC, x402 counterparty-survival baseline, Kaplan-Meier over n=122,466 subjects, 2026-09-27 to 2026-11-07, 27 dated snapshots).",
  "identifier": "https://stillosdigitalholdings.com/findings/x402-counterparty-survival",
  "doi": null,
  "bibtex": "@misc{stillos-x402counterpartysurvival-2026,\n  author       = {{Still OS Digital Holdings LLC}},\n  title        = {By 30 days, 74.56% of paid x402 services an agent could have started paying are no longer listed.},\n  year         = {2026},\n  howpublished = {\\url{https://stillosdigitalholdings.com/findings/x402-counterparty-survival}},\n  note         = {Counterparty Survival at 30 days. Measured, dated and recomputable. Accessed 2026-11-07.},\n  url          = {https://stillosdigitalholdings.com/findings/x402-counterparty-survival}\n}",
  "apa": "Still OS Digital Holdings LLC. (2026). By 30 days, 74.56% of paid x402 services an agent could have started paying are no longer listed.. Retrieved 2026-11-07, from https://stillosdigitalholdings.com/findings/x402-counterparty-survival",
  "accessed": "2026-11-07",
  "url": "https://stillosdigitalholdings.com/findings/x402-counterparty-survival",
  "license": "Free to quote with attribution (CC BY 4.0)."
 }
}